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Old 12-08-2005, 11:18 AM
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Default Re: When not to make a continuation bet

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If I'm doing the math right, you'd be putting in 1410 to win 2030. Even if you assume that he's got you beat right now, that's probably good enough pot odds to call with your 2nd nut flush draw with two cards to come.

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Not quite correct. Hero isn't even getting 2:1 on his money and there are no more implied odds since villain would now be all-in. There's already an overcard on board to both of hero's cards, so if he's behind he's drawing to 9 outs twice and is about 35% to win here. You have to consider the fact that the villain called hero's preflop raise for nearly 10% of his stack. Calls in this spot usually mean either overcards or a pocket pair. In a best case scenario where villain has nothing but is holding two overcards hero now has 15 outs twice but also needs to catch something, anything, in order to beat villains high cards. Without the odds to call and the possibility of busting by calling and losing I'm folding here and looking for a better spot.

And how is hero's J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] the 2nd nut flush? The Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is still out there somewhere!
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