Re: Proper turn raise?
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Assuming you have a full 11 outs (9 for the flush plus the 2 overcards) you still only have a 24% chance of winning while putting in 25% of the money. If you factor in the fact that some of your outs may make the straight and the fact you aren't drawing to the nuts, it seems that raising on the turn cannot be +EV. Am I missing something?
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you are right about this. if we assume we have 12 outs and they are all calling, then it's barely +EV. if we assume 11 outs and they are all calling, it's -EV.
i was simply trying to say that the fact that we are maybe the best player at the table should not come into discussion.
but yeah, you're right. being realistic, we really don't even have an equity edge to push here in the first place (i agree with you that we don't have 12 outs on average here).
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