[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.


[/ QUOTE ]
I am curious as to why you want to float a seemingly solid player w/ a frequently dominated hand? Why the 7.5% PFR number as the cutoff? I may be playing incorrectly but I autofold against an unknown(no reads) with these numbers. I actually don't think an 8.85% PFR is that close to floating/or as you say you would normally do, 3 bet. Interested in why you view this as a +EV hand against his range.


[/ QUOTE ]
I like 3-betting against a player like him because he's not too aggressive postflop and I suspect that I can run him off a hand even if it's A high. I'm a big fan of position. Cold-calling is not too bad either, especially if I think it will encourage others to cold-call behind me (obviously didn't happen this time). The numbers I threw out like 7.5 PFR are somewhat arbitrary in that they're based on my own experience, so I don't have any scientific evidence to back them up. But like I said, my guess is that all three preflop options are fairly close in this case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I agree with all 3 being close against the same player. Isn't one of the three going to be clearly better based on how he plays postflop? I agree that three betting will often get him off a better hand if you both miss, but if his WTSD% is high, this won't work. Against a high WTSD% you have to hit to win whether you 3 bet or not, and more importantly he has to miss.

I think you can make a case for 3betting, if he's capable of folding A-high. I think you can make a case for folding if he's not. I think the only case for cold-calling is if you are reasonable sure that a lot of people will come behind you. What is MP3 by the converters standards? HiJack, cutoff? I honestly don't know. You left out the VPIP of the blinds and the people behind you and how many were behind you, which greatly factor into the coldcalling decision. All in all I think given the apparent game conditions 3betting and folding are close, and both are a lot better than cold calling. but i'm probably wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, MP3 is the hijack. Here are some additional stats.

CO: 50.93/5.95/0.93 over 269 hands
Button: 25.17/12.56/1.68 over 3,909 hands
SB: 25.95/11.28/1.19 over 709 hands
BB: 17.77/9.83/1.09 over 692 hands

Does that change your mind at all? Frankly, I thought it was fairly likely that the CO would come in pretty much regardless of what I did. I thought there was a decent chance the rest of them would also come in if both me and the CO called 2 cold, but I was pretty sure it would end up 3-ways if I 3-bet, i.e. the original raiser, me, and the CO. I was very surprised when the CO folded.