[DCWGaming]

I think I read this in SSH...

The general thought behind the concept is that it sometimes better to put in a raise on the turn instead of the flop as to give worse odds to the drawers, making them make bigger mistakes, and in turn collecting more.

I think i may have found an oversight that makes this incorrect...

For the record, we're going to be using the TOP definition of mistake - any move that you normally wouldnt make if you could see your opponents cards (or something like that).

Example hand:
You're in the BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG (loose passive) limps J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Button (solid TAG) raises A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

You call, UTG calls

Flop A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

A very safe board to slow play. The gutshot could be out there but 1 bet isnt going to chase him away, so (correct me if im wrong here) SSH would advocate a flop call and a turn raise to give UTG the worst possible odds to draw. A flop check/raise might be supported here as well.



What I think is the oversight though, is that if you bet out, chances are high that the button is going to raise you. This is something that UTG is probably not good enough to realize, and this oversight a big mistake that you can force him to make. While a turn check/raise is one even bad players can often fold.

So if you were to bet out your set, UTG has odds (well, implied odds) to call here for his gutshot. But a thinking player would know that a raise will come behind him, and that the gutshot will cost him at LEAST 2SBs. In this case, its 3.

So what looks like a 9:1 call followed by a raise and a reraise and another 7.5:1 call for a 11.5:1 draw is in fact just one big 5:1 mistake for a 11.5:1 draw that has been stretched out. Because the bets are stretched out, the mistake looks much less severe.

In the end, the same amount of money goes into the middle if you decide to check/call check/raise or bet/raise bet. And he is actually making the same amount of mistakes. But the difference is -

If button has nothing, he regular bets the flop and check/folds the turn. Your turn is missed completely. If you bet out, he wont call, but UTG probably will and you will get some action.

In the example above, if button actually had AQ or AK, you've just trapped UTG and made yourself a money sandwich. You get to have a bet/raise war, UTG will probably see the turn and fold. And you get to pull alot more out of the button than if you waited till the turn.


So has this been discussed before? Have i just discovered something that is common knowledge to everyone already? I do that alot...