Re: Almost FT, A7o
I'm putting ~100K to win ~120K. this is 1.2:1 on my money. I'm 1.4:1 fav against KQ here (I'm actually in a worse situation against QT). This means it is about +28K in EV.
MLG says that CEV is not close to $EV here, and this is pretty much true (I wouldn't say "not even close", but there's a difference for sure). However, considering the short stack sizes, and the fact the the big jumps in prize money are still pretty far ahead at the final table, I think that giving up on such clear +CEV spot is a long term losing play.
To MLG: the fact that CEV is not equal to $EV does not mean that taking this one is -$EV, and what's more, it does not mean that this spot isn't actually better in terms of $EV than some future marginal situations, i.e, aggressive moves with garbage against other short stacks, which might of course be +$EV, but not necessarily higher than this call here, and not necessarily with much smaller risk.
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