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Old 10-25-2005, 08:02 AM
Mackas Mackas is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Ireland
Posts: 80
Default Re: Q8s on the button

Like Boxtree I think playing the hand at all is a mistake.

That notwithstanding I would take the free card on the turn. Even if you are in front (which I think is unlikely as outlined below) and UTG has a 67 draw you won't push him out (or the loose CO) with the raise anyway so your raise does nothing to increase your chances of winning the hand. You might make two extra BB in the unlikely event you are in front and they both call and miss whatever outs they have or you could end up charging yourself 2BB to try and make your draw if UTG does have a 5. You could even be drawing dead:

If he is as conservative / weak tight as you describe does he really bet out 67 here? What hands would a conservative weak tight player who "has a clue" play preflop UTG (and not raise with) that fit this board anyway? I think 67s unlikely if he really is conservative / weak tight? 45s and 56s are even more unlikely which leaves in my opinion A5s, A8s, 88, 55, (unlikely given his lead on the flop), 99, TT and again an unlikely 66 and 77. All in all then given the A on the turn I think there is a very real chance that you are already drawing dead, a possibility that you are drawing to 8 or at most 9 outs, and a very remote possibility that you are in front.

All in all fold preflop, don't three bet the flop but once you have done that and reached the turn just take the free card.

This is the point where you justify things by explaining you didn't mean he was conservative and weak tight or that conservative and weak tight players in this game do play small suited connectors UTG in this game ...

Good Luck

Mackas
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