Re: 44 BB defense, river check-fold.
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Just for the sake of curiosity I stoved this. Assume villian starts with 40% of hands.
River equity: 14.9%
Turn equity: 35.3%
Flop equity: 45%
And this is assuming villian doesn't fold any of his hands all the way to the river. You are in bad bad shape on the river and like the fold. Flop and turn appear to be solid.
ps. I've never done an analysis of a hand like this before but the results are interesting here.
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40% is probably correct, but what specific hands did you input?
Is this my flop equity on this specific board?
I would narrow his hands a little after he calls my turn check-raise. This could be overcards, or some weaker pair that beats me. I think a queen is often 3 betting me here. A's and K's will sometimes go for the flop smoothcall-turn raise also.
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