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Old 10-31-2005, 04:56 AM
ChrisV ChrisV is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 339
Default Re: Isolating @ the bubble

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(1) You aren't definitely ITM just yet. I'd like to lock up my final three spot.

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This is not a reason to call and not raise.

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Eh? How do you figure?

I think I know what your arguments are, but I'd rather you elaborate before I reply to them.

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(3) You're quite often going to flop a set or overpair.

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No, you're not. And, when you do, you can still lose. I mean... while we are on the topic of perfect storms...

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Perhaps "often" wasn't the right word. I meant "often enough so that it's a consideration". I don't see how the possibility of losing is relevant. Ignoring the overpair question for a second, if your opponent makes such a strong hand that a set of eights is no good, the chance of UTG defeating him is next to nothing. One of the major problems I have with stacking off preflop is the possibility of the button calling you with something like AJ or 99 and beating you but losing to UTG.

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In my experience here the Button has a hand here that can call this raise like 0-1% of the time. I hardly ever see this type of call-call with stack sizes that look like this. If you are playing some .01 cent sng and people really call-call with Q9 here.... Then I don't know what to say. But, I think for the most part the thing worrying about is the chance the BB wakes up with a hand... That's going to burn you way more than the button going call-call here. Generally people give respect to people sticking their chips in a dry side pot... It will take some sort of perfect storm here for you to get burned and I think its much more +EV to play the hand like the hero has.

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By "perfect storm" you mean button calling, since it's extremely unlikely that he's calling with a hand you want him to call with.

Him calling with AA or KK is bad, but at least he'll probably beat UTG. The real disaster is him calling with AJ or 99 or something (and don't tell me you can't imagine this happening).

Against a tight button, go ahead and shove. Usually I'm 8-tabling and not paying a hell of a lot of attention to the other players. I'm not willing to bet my tourney that the button understands that my hand is usually very good here. Not for 350 chips with the added drawback of increasing shorty's survival chances.
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