Re: pretty simple question
Have you stolen his blinds previously? Have you seen him c/r bluff 4th street? How does he play when he flops bottom pair? Does he 3 bet a small pocket pair preflop? "Typical lag stats" doesn't cut it for an open and shut answer, but if you want one, it definitely isn't "bet because you have a ton of outs even if you do get checkraised".
1.The pot is small so knocking out a 4 out draw isn't that valuable
2. Basically everytime you get called on the flop and then get bet into on the river, you can know that you are behind, so folding the river is fine. Stopping a bluff has no utility because the K hi flop already did that, and, did I mention the pot is small?
3. I think its very likely that you are going to be catching a checkraise upside the head in this betting sequence.
and, you won't be happy about that. Did I mention the pot is small?
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