Re: Caro Article
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First of all, you would have to do a hell of a lot of observation to know what percentage of the time a person will reraise your button steal attempts, for example.
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Not a problem online for all of the "regular" players who multi table. Every single hand that is dealt is available to you.
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Yet, the answer to your question really is not mathematical. The answer is, whenever the man gets tired of you constantly raising his blind. In which case his frequency of reraising the steal attempts is likely to rise if you keep doing it. Also, his range of reraising hands will now change.
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Exactly. I 100% agree with you, but I claim that you can mathematically model this phenomena. Not with standard statistics that you read about in poker books, but with advanced methods that you see published in mathematical journals.
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There are a lot of players that, if you try to peg them mathematically, you'll fail. A good player never plays a hand the same way twice.
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And you can observe a player playing hands differently and your mathematical model can point this out to you. Even if your model does a poor job predicting what hands he has in certain situations, it can at least tell you that it is having a hard time doing so and alert you that this player is not easy to read.
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What's important is how they play their hands at that moment, in that game.
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I don't disagree, but at the same time, how people have played in the past in similar situations is incredibly useful information, and for many players out there it will give you a very good way to predict what range of hands they have right now.
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