Thread: Caro Article
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Old 12-02-2005, 02:22 AM
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Default Re: Caro Article

"Psych major is required to take a statistics course these days), then why try to make the claim that no behaviors at the poker table can be quantified?"
Never made that claim, however, you are making it much more complicated that it is. First of all, you would have to do a hell of a lot of observation to know what percentage of the time a person will reraise your button steal attempts, for example. Yet, the answer to your question really is not mathematical. The answer is, whenever the man gets tired of you constantly raising his blind. In which case his frequency of reraising the steal attempts is likely to rise if you keep doing it. Also, his range of reraising hands will now change.
There are a lot of players that, if you try to peg them mathematically, you'll fail. A good player never plays a hand the same way twice. What's important is how they play their hands at that moment, in that game. For example, I may limp in UTG with KK if I know someone behind me will raise me so I can put in a reraise. Although, I don't always play it that way, I like to change it up a bit, I may just lead with it from that position. Usually if I flop the big full, I'll check it, give my opponent a free card before betting, however, not always, sometimes I'll put a bet out, especially if I think someone will interpret that as a sign of weakness and reraise me, then I can get their money in the middle. I'm not applying math, I'm applying psychology, i.e. what is my opponent thinking, what does he think of me? I'm not basing my decision on "well, he reraises continuation bets 100% of the time", I'm basing it on, "will he fall for my trap this time?" For that to happen, I have to make him believe something that is not true.
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