Re: One big, bad session.
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm not sure if this range of hands is significant enough to be concerned about, but A23x (just a bare one) cuts my outs a bit.
[/ QUOTE ]
I ran some numbers:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Non suited
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s 2s Ah Jh 237 569 181 70 0 142 425 0.642
3s Ac 2c 5d 90 181 569 70 142 0 425 0.358
7s 2s Ah Jh 276 592 228 0 0 142 402 0.652
Ac 3c 6d 2h 77 228 592 0 142 0 402 0.348
7s 2s Ah Jh 148 494 326 0 0 96 448 0.528
Ac Ad 6d 2h 146 326 494 0 96 0 448 0.472
7s 2s Ah Jh 203 490 248 82 84 0 483 0.608
Ac Ad Kd 2h 112 248 490 82 0 12 483 0.392
7s 2s Ah Jh 148 445 327 48 0 108 436 0.509
Ac Ad 3d 2h 188 327 445 48 108 0 436 0.491
7s 2s Ah Jh 224 545 229 46 0 142 425 0.613
As 3c 4h 2h 133 229 545 46 142 0 425 0.388
7s 2s Ah Jh 95 269 494 57 110 0 479 0.424
Ac 2h 5s 5d 182 494 269 57 0 16 479 0.576
Suited]
7s 2s Ah Jh 168 331 438 51 0 142 425 0.449
As 9s 3c 2c 209 438 331 51 142 0 425 0.551
The only thing that has you in terrible shape is higher flush draw + a current better high:
7s 2s Ah Jh 45 131 609 80 0 108 436 0.265
As 3s Ac 2h 334 609 131 80 108 0 436 0.735
</pre><hr />
You have everything else nicely in your pocket. Any better low draw + wrap draw you have crushed. Even A23s you're close to even money with - this is why the J top pair is so important to your equity in this situation. Without it I may well muck.
As I said you'd have to be extremely unlucky to be well behind here. Against his range I think you have a slight edge overall. Include the few hands where he may not have a low draw like AA3, AAxs, or a naked low like A2xx (we are talking about a low limit table here), and your equity is even better. It's a clear push.
|