[Siegmund]

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How often will you hit a home run flop here?

Total: 5.4:1 against [including draws]

You are getting 5.7:1 here (at best). With the rake, I think that this is a fold. It is very close though.

Brad

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But you're leaving out the times you win with a pair of tens.

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And you're leaving out the fact that flopping a draw has not made you any money; it has only given you enough odds to see the rest of the cards. Only if you flop a draw, get a bunch of extra money into the pot, and win your fair share, will you make back enough to cover the preflop investment.

Your implied odds have been destroyed by that preflop raise. No way would I call this preflop even in the BIG blind. Playing suited connectors from early position or in raised pots is a huge, huge, huge leak, one I didn't have until I was seduced into playing them too often by posters on this and similar forums. Took me quite some time to get over it but am glad I did.

T9s is about the worst I would play from the SB here. 87s I *might* play from the BB.

Returning to the OP's question... if these are typical fish they are thinking about absolute rather than relative hand values, and think any ace is a terrific hand on this flop and turn. (Which it is - but not enough to cap two streets without a K or Q kicker at least.) I think my only poisoned out is the [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6. If there's any chance the turn WON'T be capped, I am staying to see the river.