[Nick Royale]

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I would have raised the flop though.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Do you really think you're going to increase your chances of winning enough to make up for driving out potential customers?

I think the flop bettor probably has an ace.

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EV raise:
x = probability we get 1 coldcaller
y = probability we get 2 coldcaller

0.46*(1-x-y)*2 + x*0.46*4 + y*0.46*6 - 0.54*2 =
= 0.92x + 1.84y - 0.16


EV call:
u = probability we get 1 caller
v = probability we get 2 caller

0.46*(1+u+2v) - 0.54*1 =
= 0.46u + 0.92v - 0.08


Reasonable estimations at 0.5/1:
x=0.4
y=0.2

u=0.45
v=0.40

Gives:
EV raise: +0.58SB
EV call: +0.49SB


Eh, well... I though I might had been on to something with that calc, but the risk of being up against a fd, particulary when you get coldcall and the fact that losing custumers might lower our implied odds even though raising would pad the pot make me think a call is better. The raise isn't terribly far off though, even if my estimations is a little bit too optimistic what it comes to cold callers I think. A change of y to 0.1 would swing the calc by ALOT.

EDIT: a change of y to 0.1 would change the ev for the raise to 0.39...