Re: was I right to raise the turn?
[ QUOTE ]
assuming we have all twelve outs, our equity is 12/46, or 26%. surely there must be some discount for a possible higher flush draw here. we can also not realistically assume that everyone always calls. this can't be +EV, and this is ignoring the benefits of being bet into on the river compared to being checked to. you're basically lowering your own implied odds and pushing a nonexistant equity edge.
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm glad someone said this, because the turn 3-bet isn't close. Assuming 12 clean outs and that everyone always calls this line has an EV of +0.04BB. If SB has a set, someone holds a fd or someone folds it immediately turn into a clearly -EV decision.
And as you point out, the tiny lost we might make by not raising the turn is very easily compensated by the times we're able to raise the entire field on the river when we're actually a ~95% favorite to take the pot instead of a ~25% favorite.
|