[crazygoose]

OK I think that analysis sucks. This is what makes value betting correct: So say you are ahead 60% of the time that you bet and he calls. Say he is folding 20% of the time and has the flush or J (or some other wierd monster) 20% of the time. You are winning one bet 60 times and lossing two bets 20 times for a net gain of 20 bets. If you check and he bets with a J or flush you are losing 40 bets if he only bets these hands. I dont think he will be betting a worse hand than yours more than 60% which is what you need in order to make a check call correct. Sorry for being so long winded all I'm saying is VALUE BET. I don't know the exact numbers but they are close I'm sure. Value betting is the bread and butter of 2/4 against these idiots.