Re: 2/4 AKo UTG: Bet this river with 2 pair?
it is possible, but how much value do you lose when you're behind and how much do you gain when ahead is my question. i'm a simple guy not a math/tech guy, so for my flintstonian-self:
- you lose 1bb when you check and he checks behind a worse hand that would have paid off (30%).
- you lose 0bb when you check and he checks behind a hand that wouldn't pay off (30%).
- you lose 2BBs when up against trips Jacks (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against AJ (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against KJ (5%)
- you lose 2BBs when up against a flush (15%)
- you win 1BB when up against an Ace (or other hand) that bluffs at this river (8%).
- you win 2BBs when he completely bluffs (2%)
obviously rough numbers but i don't think they're horrible (like i said i'm not a math guy) but seems you look to lose a lot more than gain. feel free to adjust as you see fit i guess.
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