[scdavis0]

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Doing my own numbers isn't it more like I pick up $100 (the $100 in the pot) when he folds and lose 90% of the $150 that he has left (~$135) when he calls? Then he only has to fold like 58% of the time to make this profitable. And that's completely ignoring the few times I'll actually be ahead when he calls.

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Way I was thinking about it was net profit (your pf plan with calling the raise then attacking the pot, rather then assuming postflop on what to do; the differences in our numbers is I include the pf call of the reraise in one of the obstacles to overcome)

namely, you win the amount he expended pf + continuation bet when he doesn't call, (which was ~80) and lose your stack (or effective stack, which was ~225) with just ~2ish outs (so 10%, or about 20 equity, making net -200).

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I understand your analysis, but it ignores my backup plan of occassionally flopping a set and winning a huge pot.

The true flop fold percent figure for profitability is probably somewhere in between my 58% and your 70% number when you factor this in.