[Wintermute]

I just noticed that the Villian has a relatively short stack here (should read more carefully), which changes things slightly, especially if Other Guy is the type to try to isolate a short stack who he suspects might be making a move on the pot. Still, I don't think it changes this much, since hero is ~LAG and already protecting the pot by leading at it.

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Take a guess here:
For Villain
1. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?

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20%

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2. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?

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5%

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3. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?

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75% or whatever is left

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For OtherGuy, same questions on how likely he is to have one of those hands, but also add in what percent chance you think he will fold one of those hands if I jam here (further info on OtherGuy: VPIP 18; W$SD=19, WSD=59. Hero has been a bit loose and aggressive so far but not been at the table very long)
4. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?

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40%; ~0%

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5. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?

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40%; 0% (by the way, I'm lumping in B-way with other redraws as well)

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6. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?


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20%; no idea, maybe 50%?


FWIW, I really hope this post doesn't end in something like "Villian had junk, Other Guy raised w/ just top set in an attempt to isolate against the short stack, and called my all-in raise and t/r came brick brick for my scoop"... b/c I think the range of hands here is going to make a fold the best option, although I admit that the range of hands assigned is heavily dependent on opinion.