Re: Peak oil
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We're not going to run out of oil in the next 100 years. We may exhaust easily extracted sources so that the price increases somewhat. But there is an enormous amount of hydrocarbons which are not currently economical to tap. The tar sands of Canada, for example, contain more oil than Saudi Arabia. Similar deposits exist in the Rockies in the US. They aren't being actively exploited (other than a few pilot projects) because of the higher expense of separating oil from earth (as well as the enormous environmental consequences of strip mining huge areas). If oil hits $100 a barrel, these new supplies will open up.
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The problem with tar sands and shale is that they require an enormous amount of energy to extract. For each unit of energy you are extracting, you are using up 70% of that energy in the process of extracting it. Not to mention the fact that you are burning up natural gas reserves which are also in short supply. Neither of these really solves the problem of the end of cheap oil.
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Also, a higher cost of energy will make it much more important to develop alternatives. We'll use more alternative sources like biodiesel, wind/solar/hydro, spend a lot more research nuclear fusion, and possibly build new fission power plants.
At absolute worst, we'll have a severe recession caused by higher energy prices, like the mid-70's, but worse. Sorry, but we're not reverting to an agrarian society.
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A transition from a hydrocarbon based economy to some alternative energy source would mean trillions of dollars in research, development, and infrastructure and would have a significant impact on the way we live. It will, in my opinion, be the most important economic event of the next century.
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