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Old 05-01-2005, 04:59 PM
beernutz beernutz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: gulf coast
Posts: 908
Default Re: probability of dropping 10BB

It happens. Yesterday in a particularly awful run including my AA23s getting quartered heads-up by A235ns when the flop was 447 rainbow (probably not that bad of a beat actually) and a string of >10 in a row A2suited hands with unplayable flops. I dropped 60BBs and I'm sure there was a stretch where I lost >10 in 100 hands. Of course, some of the extreme LAGs were going up and down that much every rotation.

At mid-stakes 6-max I'd guess *my* probability of being down 10BBs over 100 hands within any given 1000 hand stretch at close to 100% due to the variance I've experienced in that game.

It is not a stupid question but the answer is going to vary widely with game conditions, table size, opponents, etc. so it is not an easy one to answer.
(1) Can anyone estimate the probability of dropping 10BB in 100 hands, assuming the player is +3BB/100 on average? Make and state any other assumptions you want.

(2) Is this the stupidist question in the world? I'm new to o/8 and am just trying to get an idea of what to expect if I play a couple of hours a day.



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