[jt1]

MrHoobris,

I agree that Hero's overs are tainted. I also agree that SB would be wise to lead with a monster rather than check raise it. I can see SB having a monster or a pp or AJ or KJ. But you may be able to fold the pp or get a free card.

If Hero has 7 outs then he's roughly a 3-1 dog to win it by the river. There are 2 players in the game. I think catastrophe may be too strong a word.


edit: Ofcourse, if hero is 3 bet then Hero only has 4 outs and is odds decrease to slightly more than 4-1 and UTG may possibly fold. I can see your point a little bit better now.

Basically, by choosing to raise you are betting that sb will 3-bet or turn donk less than half the time.