Re: Turn Raise
Tight table? Looks like a pf steal-raise from the hijack.
Will this guy consider this a steal-raise? Will he c/r a steal-raise with air? If so and you are ahead the turn raise shuts him down.
Will he c/r with a draw like JT or T7? If so he is calling the raise and won't pay off your hand if he misses and you hit.
Seems most likely his c/r is an 8 or 9 and he is going to S/D and may or may not 3-bet you depending on how LAGgy he is.
FE= Fold% * PotSize, and both factors seem small in this case.
The turn card made your draw very strong. 15 outs to beat a pair makes you only a 2:1 dog, and if you flat call the turn does he know where he stands when you hit your draw? Seems like you get at least 1 BB on the end like 90% of the time, and sometimes 2 bets. Any future bets you lose due to the turn raise offset the FoldEquity you gain.
On the plus side, if he IS laggy and 3-bets... your draw is plenty strong to continue and if you can hit your monster and pop him on the end that will help your metagame. Making this move with a weak draw and folding to a 3-bet could hurt your metagame. I think that's a smaller consideration.
My take is that the marginal showdown value of your A-high, strength of your draw, small pot size, and likelyhood he has a pair and won't laydown make a better case for calling instead of raising.
Interesting hand.
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