Thread: AK flop play
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Old 07-15-2005, 01:17 AM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 27
Default Re: AK flop play

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First off, let's assume that hero is up against a set or a straight.

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I don't play on PS much, but at Party, this is very, very unlikely to be a set. If he has a straight, good for him. You've got between 4-5 clean overcard outs on average.

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If villain has an overpair or is bluffing, then we can count the Ace and King as outs too so his odds become even better.

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Yes we can, which is why it's going to suck a lot when you get pushed off this hand roughly 2/3 of the time (oh, you're also not getting paid when an ace or king turns and 99 shuts down, so 4-5 of these outs aren't worth very much.)

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And if you factor in implied odds plus the chance that he won't face too large of a bet to stay around on the turn if he misses, the numbers become even better. Clearly, calling is +EV. I don't know if it is as +EV as raising, but I do think calling is a viable option here. Whether it is the prefered option is a matter of opinion I guess, but I don't think that it sucks.

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Pushing preflop is +EV, too, but it still sucks.

Don't get me wrong, BTW, I understand what you're talking about and partially agree, but his range doesn't support calling at all. Actually, I may very well be wrong because I don't play on PS and if this is a set obviously calling is better. At Party, it's by and large not.
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