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Old 11-28-2005, 07:12 AM
Double Down Double Down is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
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Default Re: BJ odds question

"I thought that losing a hand was an indication that the remaining deck was now stacked slightly more in your favor, and I see now that that's not the case. It might be true to a very small extent but nowhere near the .5% that needs to be overcome. "


Actually, it's interesting you bring this up. I read a BJ book where the author (I think it was Stanford Wong's Professional Blackjack) performed such a simulation. He ran a simulation of billions of hands and the computer recorded the win % of the first hand after a loss and the win % the first hand after a win. Even 1 step further, he recorded what happened on the hand after 2 wins, 2 losses, a win and a loss, and a loss and a win. And guess what he found? That to the 1/1000th of a percentage, in every case, the win % was the same (around 43%, something like that).

Therefore, there is absolutely no way to tell just what's gonna happen on the next hand. Just count cards, bet big when you're supposed to, and pray for the best.

Even if you don't count cards and just play basic strategy, the amount you lose, even playing $25/hand, is easily made up in free drinks, let alone the comps. Even if you just had 1 drink an hour, you'd be even money with what you give up. Not too shabby.
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