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Old 11-27-2005, 09:13 PM
Double Down Double Down is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
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Default Re: BJ odds question

OK, here's why it doesn't work:

Yes, the cards have a "memory" in the sense that when certain cards come out, the odds of the other cards coming out afterward is increased. But the only way to exploit this is through card counting, where raising or lowering your bets is determined by what cards have come out.

However, it is futile to do this based on whether you just won or lost a hand. When it comes to these types of results, the cards do not have a memory. You are no more likely to win or lose a hand based on what has just happened. Cards only have memory as far as their composition, but not their winning results.

Because of this, in the long run, any sort of betting progression you do will result in however much money you wagered times the house advantage. Here is an example:

Let's say that you flip a coin with a friend. when it lands on heads, you win and tails you lose. When you lose, you double your bet, and a session is 4 flips. Let's look at all of the possibilities:

HHHH=+4
HHHT=+2
HHTH=+3
HHTT=-1
HTHH=+3
HTHT=+1
HTTH=+2
HTTT=-6
TTTT=-15
TTTH=+1
THTH=+2
TTHT=0
TTHH=+2
THTT=-2
THHT=+1
THHH=+3


Final result=0

And this is because the odds don't change. It's heads or tails, an even money proposition. The HA is 0%. Now, take a guess at what happens when playing a game where the house edge is negative. That's right, you'll end up losing.

Yes, most of the time, you'll win a little and a few times you'll lose a lot. Results are just the opposite for a positive betting progression. You'll have a few big wins and a bunch of little losses.
But in the long run, it makes no difference. You will be down however much you have wagered total times whatever the house advantage is.
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