View Single Post
  #14  
Old 11-17-2005, 02:36 PM
Kyriefurro Kyriefurro is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 70
Default Re: SSNL Theory Question: Controlling pot size?

[ QUOTE ]
If this is Villan's known hand range, even with the A on board you're only ahead of half of his possible hands, so how can calling pre-flop with the intention of calling all the way down be +EV?

I realize that this was just an example, so I'm not trying to nit-pick. I'm just trying to get a better understanding of how strong (or weak) your hand should be in order to elect going into call-down mode.

The concept of "taking away a street" definitely makes sense, too, but doesn't that mean you're losing money to draws that would call a -EV bet on earlier streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thinking too, originally. And I still agree with you on the first part. If villain's really that tight with his PFR's, I'm folding my hand heh.

As for the second part, the example was deliberately structured to eliminate the possibility of draws (I'm guessing here, but bet I'm right lol). Mathematically on this flop Hero has a pretty big equity edge here (a little better than 3:2), and you'd think he'd want to get as many chips in as he thought villain would call. So why wouldn't he? The answer is in GrunchCan's explaination. It's about agro control.

Since there are still a number of hand in villain's range that beat me (equity not withstanding), then a bet on the turn is dangerous. Why? Because villain can come over the top, and I still have no idea whether to call or not. If he's ahead, then calling is wrong and I loose money. If he's behind, but I fold, then I loose again. For that matter, he could just call here and then I REALLY don't know where he's at! There are just too many opportunities for me to make a mistake here. So checking behind is safest.
Reply With Quote