[floppy]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you've got AQo in the CO. A uber-tight player raises 3xbb from UTG. From playing with him, you know that this likely means AA-JJ or AK. You're the only caller. The flop comes As-5d-8c. He bets 2/3 of the pot, which is standard for him. You call. Flop is a blank and he checks. You check behind.

The turn check is an example of a move designed to keep the pot small. You want to get to a cheap showdown if he's got JJ-KK and avoid putting too much money in the pot if he has AA or AK. He'll most likely make a smallish bet (btw 1/2-2/3 of the pot) on fifth street, which you can easily call.


[/ QUOTE ]

If this is Villan's known hand range, even with the A on board you're only ahead of half of his possible hands, so how can calling pre-flop with the intention of calling all the way down be +EV?

I realize that this was just an example, so I'm not trying to nit-pick. I'm just trying to get a better understanding of how strong (or weak) your hand should be in order to elect going into call-down mode.

The concept of "taking away a street" definitely makes sense, too, but doesn't that mean you're losing money to draws that would call a -EV bet on earlier streets?

Edit: With the A on board, I see that you're now ahead of 15 out of 24 possible hands Villan has.