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Old 10-03-2005, 09:24 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 66
Default Re: This push plus or minus EV

This question is underspecified.

To compare pushing with checking, you need to make some assumptions about the postflop play. If you push and are called in two places, will the players check it down? If you check, what will happen postflop?

Also, you said that the SB would call with the top 25%. Is that only if the button folds, or does the SB not care? I'll assume the SB doesn't care.

I'll use folding as a baseline.

If you push, about 3/8 of the time, you pick up the pot, gaining 900.

About 1/2 of the time, 1 player calls. You have put an extra 800 into a pot of 2500, and you expect to get back about 33.4%, according to PokerStove, 835, for a gain of 35.

About 1/8 of the time, both players call, and I'll assume they check it down. You have put an extra 800 into a pot of 3300, and you expect to get back about 24.7%, 815, for a gain of 15.

The average is a gain of about 357 chips compared with folding. If you check, you have a weak hand and a positional disadvantage, so you shouldn't expect to get 1/3 of the pot, 300. Pushing should average more chips
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