[Freudian]

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So even if Party feels it is necessary to demolish profits by giving HUGE bonuses and 50% of the rake back, they will be able to survive the longest, as all other little guys will start to fold first because they don't have the resources or money.

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I think it would be hard to steal a great deal amount of the casual players for Party. Many simply don't keep track of what alternatives there are once they found a card room. And they aren't really cost sensitive even if Party found a channel to communicate with them.

It's not like in many other businesses. A loyal Coke user still knows what Pepsi is and has tried it. Many Intel users have heard of AMD.

I think a lot of the smaller poker sites survive because people wander in more by accident than by an informed decision and enjoy it enough to not bother to shop around for something better. And some (like Expekts, Unibets scandinavian customers, Bodog customers) have faith in the brand name and don't care much about if the pokerroom is good or not.

I think in many ways online poker is a strange industry, both from the producer and the consumer side.

Sorry for rambling. My point is that I doubt any company will get a monopolistic grasp of the poker market. I think even 50% of the market will be hard to reach until the market has stagnated so much that consolidation is forced upon everyone.