Re: Isolating @ the bubble
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I'd just call for several reasons:
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Ok...
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(1) You aren't definitely ITM just yet. I'd like to lock up my final three spot.
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This is not a reason to call and not raise.
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(2) How much equity in the pot are you actually protecting here? I doubt you grab more than about 35% equity in the pot by knocking out button and BB here. About 350 chips, which doesn't seem worth the risk of button or BB waking up with a monster and nailing you.
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In my experience here the Button has a hand here that can call this raise like 0-1% of the time. I hardly ever see this type of call-call with stack sizes that look like this. If you are playing some .01 cent sng and people really call-call with Q9 here.... Then I don't know what to say. But, I think for the most part the thing worrying about is the chance the BB wakes up with a hand... That's going to burn you way more than the button going call-call here. Generally people give respect to people sticking their chips in a dry side pot.
But, the thing I really wanted to point out is that in my opinion the 350 or so chips you gain in equity is way worth it when you weigh it against the risks. It will take some sort of perfect storm here for you to get burned and I think its much more +EV to play the hand like the hero has.
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(3) You're quite often going to flop a set or overpair.
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No, you're not. And, when you do, you can still lose. I mean... while we are on the topic of perfect storms...
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(4) Like Tigerite said, you want zero chance of the button calling with some awful hand like K9 or even AJ. A three-way like UTG - K9, you - 88, button - AJ is a horrible situation.
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Again, this is the perfect storm. And, even with the perfect storm, you are still the favorite in the three-way pot and aren't at all in a 'terrible' situation. Plus, when you figure you find yourself here less than 5% of the time (closer to 1% IMO) its almost not worrying about at all.
Anyway. Your points seem very poorly argued and I think that raising is the play here.
-Jason
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