Re: Random Walk
TA and specifically trend following techniques do not attempt to predict, whatsoever.
This point is absolute. There is no prediction in trend following. Probability is all you have to go on. Letting go of predicting (philosophically) is essential to the practice of successfully following trends.
TA and specifically trend following techniques look to identify +EV spots to enter. What plays out after that is a question of uncontrollable events and the 100% controllable practice of applying specific trading discipline.
TA and specifically trend following techniques assign and act upon valid probability estimates of price moving in one of three directions (up, down, sideways) from the current price.
Let "act upon" include the action 'do absolutely nothing'.
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