Why are you betting the river anyway?

Villian is never folding a better hand here EVER...
What do you put villian on here?
Are you good 55% of the time you are called?


I find myself taking what's considered the "soft option" by most 2 + 2ers, a lot in situations like this. But here's my reasoning.

If [as villian] I see you value betting on the river all the time, I'm going to do exactly this. I'm going to bluff checkraise (hopeless hands) and value checkraise (great) hands like this all day long. And I'll do it just enough that it doesn't matter how often you call or fold you are going to lose money in the long run.

So, when I see an opportunity that I would take for a bluff checkraise {if I was the villian} I bump up the requirements for a value bet.
Ie. I have to be good here when called ~70% of the time to bet.

What that means in this particular case is: I wouldn't be betting this river unless I had top pair or villian will call with UI overs ~100% of the time.

Flame away.