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predictable amateur action

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Actually I think the only way to beat NFL is by fading the public. But... I don't think that's all that reliable. I think the market is so efficient with so much money involved that it is basically a coinflip and that the public will likely correct as often as they are wrong.

Those "predictable" amateurs have been winning for the past few weeks even though they started slowly this season.

I'm glad you like NFL capping and are successful at it. I know I never could be. I just think there is too much money making the lines "correct" and too much parity in the league with no way to predict the funny bounces and no way for those funny bounces to ever equal out.

In a sport like baseball you have a zillion games to equal out the fluke plays and a real history and track record for each team. Plus it is much more thinly bet making for many "incorrect" lines. I think the way I think about and approach baseball wagering makes the NFL betting look impossible to me.

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Then I assume you don't consider the sportsbook itself a participant, even a small one, in the NFL pointspread market. I think that's the major point on which you and I differ and I feel pretty confident that I'm right on this.

Btw baseball is my favorite sport to follow and I know pretty much every player on every team and their stats/strengths/weaknesses etc. and tons of prospects too. I just don't dare try to wager on it because it would take me weeks of research of so many games before I felt comfortable laying even a dime on my first game.