Re: Tough spot UTG short stack, deep in the 11r
Alright, figured i'd do a bit of math..
88+,AJs+,AQo+ Calls your push, maybe i could tighten that up a bit, but it'll do for this.
that's roughly 6% of hands and 8 people left to act so .96 ^ 8 chance you take the blinds.
i'll say theres 55k in the pot (30k + 15k + antes)
so .61 * 55 = +33.55k
now 39% of the time you'll be a 70/30 unnderdog, so
.7 * -260 = -182k
.3 * 320 = 96k
96k - 182k = -86k
so .39 * -86 = -33.54
so 33.55 - 33.54 = +.01k or +10 chips on average.
So obviously it's damn close, and on things this close i'd tend to lean towards playing it safe.
but theres an argument for taking the gamble because you need to make chips. But i don't this is the spot.
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