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1) If SB has and set and CO has a random hand:
Pot equity is ~25%, so betting is -EV.
2) If SB has 2 pair and CO has a random hand:
Pot equity is ~33.4%, so is break even.
3) If SB has TPTK and CO has a randome hand:
Pot Equity is ~44%, so betting is +EV.

I think that the first two outcomes are more likely given the checkraise, with option one being the most likely.

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That's where we disagree. You're figuring the set to be far more likely than I would, based on my experience at 1/2. Again, we're talking a flop c/r, not a turn c/r. If it were a turn c/r I'd be inclined to agree with you.

You also neglected to consider the whole range of SB's possible hands, including the draw that is IME at least as likely as a set.