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Old 09-14-2005, 10:50 AM
Abbaddabba Abbaddabba is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 25
Default Re: PP 10/20 Flopped Set, Too much action?

You're in a difficult position only because you played it so poorly on every other street.

Deuces are a clear fold in all but the loosest and most passive of games preflop. I sincerely doubt that this table met that criteria. Also, that's not a flop where slowplaying is advisable. If you _did_ plan on slowplaying that on the flop though, just calling on the turn is even worse ESPECIALLY when you have a caller between you and the bettor. I can _maybe_ understand not raising if you're looking for overcalls (even still, i'd raise in almost all circumstances), but when you have everyone by the balls, not raising is retardedly bad. You missed 2 bets when your hand was both an almost certain heavy favorite, and when you were still vulnerable.

Then you're faced with two bets in front of you on the river. The thing about concealing hte strength of your hand is that when you're shown strength on the river, you don't know the relative strength of their cards. From their perspective, they have no reason to believe you have a set and just filled up. You'd have to be _terrible_ to not raise the turn if you had a set. Consequently, UTG's raise _may_ just mean that he has trips and is raising for value against the SB. After all, he has no good reason to believe that anyone there is stupid enough to not raise a set on the turn. SB is almost certainly on an overpair or a strong jack and will show the hand down, so he has every reason to raise. Your hand reeks of a flush draw, and he probably doesn't anticipate your overcall, so there's almost no value in him just calling there. Trips gets more value from raising.

I definitely don't think raising would be wise here. If anything, _you_ want the overcall from the SB who you almost definitely have beat, and who _will_ call one additional bet, but not two. There is a chance that you're behind UTG, so raising him would be pointless. You lose less when you are behind, and win more when you're ahead by calling.

Calling is pretty much the only thing you can do, unless you've got some strong reads to suggest that UTG is a rock and/or passive absent of EXTREME strength.

If it gets 3bet and capped behind you, it's probably a fold. If there's a 3rd bet after i called two, i'd probably have to call, but i wouldn't be too pleased about it.

[ QUOTE ]
I was planning on raising the turn with the initial call. Got so much action on the flop that i figured I was against J7/JJ/77/Club draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's an unrealistic range of hands.

More likely than not you're facing an overpair, a strong jack or a strong queen from the SB. UTG is anyone's guess. The raise on the river suggests that it includes a 7, but that he hasnt filled up. If he had a hand that could potentially fill up, he'd have raised the turn.

When you go heavy on the flop and check/call the turn, it usually means that you wanted to _show_ extreme strength, but were actually not that strong. It either suggests a flush draw (where you may even have a marginal edge in a field of 3 if it's to the nuts) or a strong but vulnerable made hand.

For all i know, he may have held J/7. That isn't typical though.
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