[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi All,

For those who wonder why I play the way I do, it's really quite simple. I know I have to win thirty small pots for every one big pot I get into, because I know I will lose most of the big pots. According to PokerTracker, I'm ahead about 77% of the time when the money goes in. I win only 56% of my showdowns. That means I get outdrawn so much more often (when I'm ahead) than I outdraw my opponents (when I'm behind) that even being ahead in the hand is a net -EV for me ... UNLESS I CAN BET MY OPPONENT OUT OF THE POT.

Given that, I'm better off playing trash cards that I can lay down to a reraise, rather than good hands that will only get outdrawn if I get all-in with them.

And that's why I play so crazy.

If it comes to showdown poker -- having to put the best hand out there at the river -- I will consistently lose, regardless of how patient I am, regardless of what starting cards I play. This isn't a matter of thinking I'm unlucky. This is a matter of knowing I'm unlucky, and having 4000+ hands worth of stats to prove that out. I know I can only win with my bets, because my cards will lose if I'm called. That's why I rarely if ever call into a pot, why I rarely if ever call a reraise, and why I expect to win 99% of my pots with bluffs.

Now ... if you win ~50% of your coin-flips, and most of the time when you're ahead in the hand, your strategy and mine will necessarily differ. I don't. And I don't even expect to. I know I am not only playing against my opponents, but also playing against the dealer, and I don't expect either to give me an "even break."

Cris

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Cris,

Pokertracker has bugs. Lots of 'em. Consider that before drawing conclusions about your vibrational xeenu field affecting your long-term luck.

I loaded two hands with AQs in them history today, and my count for playing AQs didn't change. I triple checked. Pokertracker is just wrong. It's probably wrong with your stats as well.

eastbay