[ethan]

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That analysis is absolutely right, and why a flop flat call is baaaaaaad.

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Awesome. I was really hoping it was, because I sure had myself convinced.

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I like the reraise and I don't mind the fold, although sometimes the SB will turn out to be a moron and sometimes they'll both have 2 pair, pair+draw, etc. No big deal; most of the time the fold is good and in the rest your equity isn't all THAT big.

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I'm curious what my best decision would be here if the percentages worked out to give calling and folding exactly the same chipEV. (I think it's probably slightly negative to call here, but not by a lot.) That'd mean:

Call:
29%: I have 4000 chips. Next biggest stack is 1000 and we're 7-handed. Good times.
71%: I have 450 chips. We're 8-handed. doubling-up will essentially tie me for second in chips, and the blinds aren't going to make me desperate for another 15 hands. Not terrible, but not great.

Fold:
100%: I have 1150 chips and am in second, with plenty of time to maneuver. Furthermore, since I think MP1 is ahead of SB here there's a good chance most of the chips will be just to my right in the hands of someone who overplays TPGK. This last bit is actually something that just occurred to me, but it seems like it might actually be fairly important with the percentages so close.

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A better question is if you could get away from this with 1K chips to start. I don't think so, unfortunately.

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With 1000, assuming I play the flop the same until I have to call all-in I'm looking at 4.7:1. I need to win 18% for +chipEV. You're right, there's no way I can fold when it comes back to me there.