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Old 06-06-2005, 04:57 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: Pot odds for calling a river bet with 4 flush on board

In addition to LetYouDown's excellent reply, I'd add that you have important clues from the betting. He stayed in the first round, then stayed in for a flop that probably didn't help him. Okay, he could have had two diamonds or an 8 9 (either of which will beat you); but more likely he held two high cards, or an Ace and another card that paired on the board, or a pair or suited high cards or connectors. His betting pattern should tell you a lot about the relative probabilities.

Think of all those hands that beat you: KQ, A with J, 10, 3 or 7; JJ, 10 10 (okay, both of those are unlikely), 7 7, 3 3, any hand with a diamond. About the only likely hands that don't beat you are A K, A Q and K J, and none of these are likely to be bet on the river as this hand was.

I would need a good reason to stay in this pot, extraordinary pot odds or a strong indication that he's betting on a pair of Aces and nothing else. It's hard to see any hand you could beat, other than a pure bluff.
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