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Old 12-05-2005, 07:31 AM
mythrilfox mythrilfox is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 23
Default Re: JJ in pressure, 200NL

Against the player you described, I re-raise this nearly everytime preflop...

On the flop...

1. If you raise you usually only get played with by better hands and you are really hard-pressed to get any true value out of your hand. In addition, any raise that doesn't commit you gives CO proper odds to draw with a hand like AdQd, and also opens yourself up to a push from a similar hand like that from the blinds or from MP or even CO. But a 3-bet here shows enough strength to where I don't think you have to worry very much about being pushed off by a worse hand.
2. If you call a couple of ugly things may happen, including: a) the blinds tag along for an extremely cheap price in an ever-swelling pot, b) CO puts everyone on draws and has a hand like 88 that he starts betting hard since everyone is calling. now you really don't know where you are
3. If you fold, well... you lose.

I'm not really worried about MP here or the blinds, we're going to know really soon if they have anything, and most of the time they don't... Now we know raising doesn't get much intrinsic value out of the hand, so it might seem like a case can be made for calling, but the problem with that is since the blinds are so likely to tag along the pot gets way out of control very quickly. Like if you call and one of the blinds calls (or SB goes allin), MP is almost always going to call closing the action. That puts the pot at $141 on the turn... if it's checked to you, you could now bet $85 or something and fold to any further action, but we're in the same boat as we were on the flop: you aren't going to be able to take advantage of the actual value of your hand, since no better hand folds and no worse hand calls. The advantage here is that you collect more money if no one has nothing, but bear in mind that extra money you're collecting was put in "correctly" on the flop anyway - with them getting good odds to draw.

Is CO is the kind of player who will fire again with 88-TT on the turn if the above scenario happens? If he is, I think you're better off raising the flop. If he's not, you might just call and brave a turn card. Granted, you hate to see a lot of cards come off, but if the turn is checked to you, you can KNOW your hand is good. I don't like to base my decisions on one potential scenario that will happen later in the hand, either... but if he's the kind of player who will fire 88-TT again, you feel much better about raising him on the flop anyway; and if he's the kind of player who checks those hands there, you should be worried enough on the flop to just call. Plus I think this scenario is pretty likely and pretty ugly, so we'd like to be able to handle it as best as possible.

Also, how do you interpret CO's raise? I can't imagine a really powerful hand raising that little on this flop with so many loose callers in, which is another reason I'd be more inclined to raise the flop... if he is really, REALLY passive you can go ahead and dump it right off, since there are a lot of players who don't really think about hand protection, and only bet/raise relative to the bet they're facing rather than the size of the pot. But it sounds like you don't know him that well, and I would need a really strong read to do that. Usually, though, the kind of player who isn't giving a damn about hand protection is donkish enough to where you can expect to have the best hand here enough to make a raise profitable.

All in all, I like a raise to $65-70 (however little will get the job done), folding to any further action. It's ugly but it looks like the best of the 3 options. Next time re-raise preflop.
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