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Old 07-27-2005, 06:46 PM
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Default Re: What do you do with 55 here?

Assuming villian is solid, seems like there are three possibilities (all math approximate):

1. He has overpair -- you are 5-1 dog
2. He has two over -- you are about 55-45 ahead
3. He's on bluff/has one over -- you are 5-2 ahead

What's a fair breakdown of each of these scenarios? I'd probably assign 50% to #1, 40% to #2, and 10% to #3 -- fairly conservative assumptions, but since you're out of position and he raised with players behind him, I'd tend to think conservative. You could go 50/30/20, or 40/40/10 --depends on villian's past play.

So now a little (approximate) math:

Scenario one: you win 16% of time, 50% prob. = 8% win
Scenario two: you win 55% of time, 40% prob: = 22% win
Scenario three: you win 70% of time, 10% = 7% win

So you stand to win about 37% of the time. Pot is offering you 3-1 odds, so this looks like a very reasonable call to me, esp. when you consider the implied possibilities of making your set.

What about a raise? [This is my first post on here, so I guess people are calling a raise a push, unless push means "all-in"?] Not sure I see any reason why. Solid player has indicated strength, hero has a low pair and has chips to play with. I'd call and if the flop came rags, take a stab at winning it. IF you get called or raised, I'd slow way down and evaluate my options (read: pot odds).
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