[citanul]

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Right. So calling another $50 hero would need to win $400 to breakeven. There is already $175 in the pot so hero needs to win another $225 to breakeven. Hero also has to consider whether having $645 all the time is better than having $595 7/8 of the time and whatever he will win on average(lets say $1100) 1/8 times. I don't know what is correct but I would call here most of the time.

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your math assumes that hero never ever ever ever wins a pot without flopping a set. that is a bad mistake to make.

and yes, the most important thing to consider is the relative difference those 50 chips are going to make on your EV in the tournament. say calling here wins you the pot only when you hit the set. so the case where you win with getting no more chips you're giving up like, half the equity of your call since you're getting 225 when yo uwin instead of the 400ish you needed to get. but those chips down there are marginal, so there's effects to consider between the 595 stack and having the 800ish chip stack, and then more when you consider that when flopping a set you'll often make more chips, including often making more than just the 200 more you need to break even.

citanul

ps: i think i personally lean towards call here as the right answer but i can't think more about it right now. the utility of those 50 chips is just miniscule, esp considering you're about to be done paying your blinds for the orbit, compared to the huge boost a double up would give you in ev.