[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
of those hands of which you are ahead, you'll please note that all of them have outs against you.

there's no way you have 40% pot equity against three opponents here... there's virtually no way you can force anyone out on the flop no matter how you play the hand, and there's a BUNCH of scary cards that can fall on the turn. you can't protect your hand, you don't have enough equity to bet/raise, so you're waiting for the turn, and hoping to hit.

a donk bet (from you) on the turn when the safe card falls might have some merit. in such a scenario, you're preventing the button from getting a free look at the river with his AKs. you may not be folding anyone out, but at least here the bet is better.

if the button had bet the turn, and been called in two places, it becomes increasingly unlikely that even on the safe turn that your 99 will hold up, and i think a fold would be an option here.

as the hand actually played out, it was checked around. NOW it appears your hand is likely best. the river becomes complicated by UTG, who now bets. it's a large enough pot, and from the way the hand played out it seems relatively certain that your hand is better than the two preflop aggressors, so I'd call. but it's close.



further, at this point, the preflop capper is the opponent to be most afraid of. however, there's nothing you can do on the flop to protect your hand. lastly, if you're behind, you're drawing to two outs. for the handful of times you're ahead on this flop, you're dominated far more.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. I agree that I don;t have 40% pot equity after assessing the re-draws (as I thought I said in my post), I just couldn;t quantify that haircut.
2. We disagree on the FOld Equity concept. Lots of hands are folding for 2 bets on the flop even though the pot is big.
3. I advocated leading the turn when the safe card hits, as played by OP and as I envisioned playing it.
4. If button had bet the turn and got called in 2 places, I believe that we would have had odds to call our 2 outer, but that is easily calculable.
5. River is, I agree, easily callable.
6. I think it improper to classify our flop position as only being ahead a "handful of times," especially after seeing the turn action.
7. Lastly, investing the additional SB on the flop (the issue that I first raised and that you took and take exception to, may allow us to release this hand earlier and more cheaply when we are behind, a concept not heretofore raised in the analysis.

This has been a very interesting discussion and I am greatful to have had the time and clarity to have participated.

Any others have thoughts, here?