[ML4L]

Hey all,

Thanks for the replies. Here are some of my thoughts:

Preflop: Straightforward. With a read on the limpers, a raise might be profitable, but limp is the default.

Flop: I thought that more people would advocate raising here. I personally like the call. My student thought that the bet into the field here marked at least top pair (I agree), so he was likely behind at this point. Thus, I don't like a raise, as it gives Villain an opportunity to blow Hero off a decent hand with outs that Hero is not committed to.

Turn: Bet here is obvious. So is the call of the check-raise; as many have pointed out, a reraise will blow worse hands out of the water and not fold out better hands.

River: This is the street that I think is the most interesting. It is clear that Villain has a strong hand here and has checked the river to try to induce a bet from a missed flush draw. As KKF pointed out, Villain knows that a straight/set for Hero are very unlikely given his line to this point. But, the thing that I think is so interesting is that Villain might be doing this with a worse hand than Hero's. Villain was the big blind, so we can't rule out hands like 85 and 84. The other key is the fact that Hero can safely fold to a check-raise here. Villain would have to be a lunatic to try to check-raise bluff rather than lead bluff if he had no hand. So, since we never have to worry about incorrectly folding to a check-raise and since, in my opinion, Villain is calling with any hand that he has here, the only thing to decide is whether Hero has the best hand more than 50% of the time here. I told the student that, if I were at the table, I would have checked behind. But, after giving it some thought, I started to think that a bet might be good here. And, I disagree that it should be a small bet; I would really try to sell the missed flush draw. If I were to bet, it would be almost full pot.

So, the question is, do people think that Villain will hold two smaller pair here often enough to make a bet correct? Would Villain check-raise the turn with those hands? Would Villain lead the flop with those hands? I really can't decide, which is why I posted the hand. If I weren't so busy/lazy, I'd do the math on his hand distribution here and have a pretty good answer...

It sounds like most people think that Villain will have a better hand more than half the time, thus making the check the correct play?

Anyway, I'd love to hear more opinions. I'll give the results tomorrow. Thanks again.

Mike