[Shillx]

Just a follow up to see if I'm getting the math right here.

Let's assume that we will win 20% of the time when we call. The other 2 villians will win 40% of the time each. We are a 70/30 dog against any one person in a HU scenario. Is it still a call?

EV of calling...

A) If we win the hand outright the stack will look like (ours always 1st) -- t2700, t2970, t2330 -- Equity is 33.5%

B) If we beat the big stack but lose to the short stack -- t560, t2970, t2140, t2330 -- Equity of 9.54%

C) Big stack wins -- Equity of 20%

D) Short stack wins and we lose to the big stack -- Equity of 0%

A will happen 20% of the time.
B will happen .4*.3 = 12% of the time.
C will happen 40% of the time.
D will happen .4*.7 = 28% of the time.

Total = 100%

EV call = A + B + C + D = .335*.20 + .0954*.12 + .2*.4 + 0 = 15.8%

EV fold = 15.1%

So it would take just about the worst of spots to make this a fold. In order to have 20% equity, they have to be playing only the top 7-8% of their hands. And even then it is still a call! They would both literally have to have AA-TT and AK to fold here.

Brad