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Old 12-05-2005, 08:46 PM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,582
Default Re: J9s - Open Limp, Cold Call, Donk - Every street needs comments

I think your chances of being ahead on the flop are a lot better before you see the action than they are after you see it. The bet, raise, cold-call sequence indicates some people seem to like their hands.

In any event, AA-77 is 36 combos for CO. A range of ATs+, KJs+, QJs will give him 7 combos of flopped flushes. Meanwhile, AK/AQ/AJ/KQ is 56 non-flush combos. I don't know CO's exact range, but he'll often have overs + a flush draw when you're ahead of him, so it's not like I'm in love with my hand on the flop, even against just him. (You're roughly a coin flip versus A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], at this point.)

Once the action gets back to you on the flop, you're kind of hoping MP3 was betting a naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] into the PFR (or maybe T9), CO was autoraising A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and Button is cold-calling because he has a ten (or, even better for you, a 6). It's possible, but it seems like a lot to ask for. Nevertheless, I would probably call, getting about 14:2, not closing the action, based on the possibility that I'm ahead and the murky outs I have if I'm behind.

I wouldn't lead on the turn, since the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could easily be a card somone was drawing to and other kings could be out there and I'm not so confident I was even ahead on the flop. After I checked, I think I'd call one back to me but not two.

On the river, I think I like leading on this super-scary board, as I can see it getting checked through if I'm ahead. However, I'm not really going to like it if I get raised, because then I'll figure I'm chopping at best. And if it gets raised and then 3-bet, I guess I'd probably grudgingly fold. (We're only getting about 5:2 if we're hoping for a 3-way chop. I doubt there will be a 3-way chop, but if the river action happens to go bet, raise, 3-bet, I think there's a good chance we're beat. Button may have flopped a flush.)

After you check, I'm not really sure what you should do. If CO bets, you're probably chopping with him, so I guess maybe you can checkraise if Button just calls. If CO checks and Button bets, I think I'd go for an overcall, though a case could be made (I think) for checkraising anyway. If there's a bet and then a raise, I'm thinking folding is probably best.

Anyway, it is a very uncomfortable and difficult hand.
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