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Old 12-30-2005, 03:02 AM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Default Re: QQ and a fish: c/f this flop?

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When you bet the turn and get called, do you fire again on the river?

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I doubt it. Even though hero's read is "calls down with anything", I just don't think there are enough combinations of losing hands that call the turn bet that are losing to hero's hand (the board pairing was actually bad for hero. It would have been better if a jack or ten fell, as this allows villain's hand range to include many more losing hands when he calls on the turn).

The point of betting the turn is that villain can be peeling the flop with very very weak cards. His coldcall preflop probably includes the classic trap hands like KT and JTs. There might be weaker hands like K8, but even against a 50+ VPIP, that's really pushing it facing a preflop 3-bet. It's hard to imagine calling on the flop with these hands, but it happens quite frequently.

But these hands don't call the turn bet. This bet can be seen as both a value and information bet: value (when villain folds this means hero bet the best hand and it's too bad villain didn't pay it off or chase a losing draw) and information (when villain calls this means that he has *something* and *something* is much more likely to beat hero than lose to him).
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