View Single Post
Old 12-29-2005, 07:32 PM
pooh74 pooh74 is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 316
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

You're thinking about it from "your" point of view and not Hero's. What future +EV situation is he passing on? Of course as the BB you love calling here and taking advantage of the "pushbot" but this hand has nothing to do with "pushbotting" is simply an opportunity which may be your last to get HU against a random hand with a "decent" holding 3way.

If you give me an example of waiting for the more +EV opp that comes along I'd be curious.

Also, +cEV is surely +$EV with 2BBs as the shortstack, unless I am misunderstanding something.

I agree that any 2 though is too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

The CO, UTG+1, UTG, and (worst-case scenario) BB hands that he can make a stand on/push on. Most of the time Hero will get a (more than slightly) better hand that he can push acting first with (a few more people behind him too, but still). If he pushes J8 and loses (which should happen ~ 50% of the time if BB (and to a lesser extent SB) isn't overly tight), he misses out on future +EV (expected) hand(s) - (i.e., let's say he folds the button and CO, then gets KJs UTG+1 and pushes acting first).

I.e., when it's your tourney life on the line, sometimes you pass up slightly +EV plays so you don't miss out on future higher (expected) +EV plays (that you now don't get as you're out of the tourney). There's so many variables in play that it's hard to put exact numbers on it, one of those "feel" things in a lot of spots. And the fact that if Hero waits til UTG+1 or UTG to push and wins against the BB, his FE is still pretty weak makes pushing J8 better than it otherwise would be. That's probably slightly counterbalanced by the relative chips stack sizes at the table - he probably has a little more FE after winning one showdown than he would against several 1500 stacks (since people calling him (Hero having ~500-800 chips) and losing lose their FE, etc.)

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm...ok, I hear ya, but I still see this very simply.

I am saying that Hero has x amount of FE over the SB with his measley stack. Now, with the action to hero on button hero is presented with a 3 way game and if we agree that he has FE over a player, even just 1 player then we can move on to step 2 which is waiting.

Step 2, Hero folded J8, now hero still has the same FE over the remaining players from the CO, he either has a better or worse hand, equally possible BTW, but now has less EV because there are 3 players left to act.

The problem is both simple and hard. It comes down to whether the loss in EV by having more players left to act is greater than the sum of the likelyhood of getting a better hand, the amount that better hand adds to your EV, and whether you can open the pot or not. I say the loss in EV is greater, you say it is not. I really cant prove it...I'm sorry, but you're right it is feel.
Reply With Quote