Re: Quick Checkup: 3 Hands
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In hand 1 it looks like its 7:1 for a call on the turn. If the villain is really aggro with overs (or likes to semi-bluff raise when he picks up a backdoor flush draw) you might be able to call (or 3bet if he caps AQ up preflop, but you need a good detailed read for that) and then re-evaluate on river. On the other hand, theres a chance he has A8, A7, 77, 88, 55, 44, or something funny and unexpected like KK, QQ or 78 - if thats the case, then you are really screwed badly. Yada yada yada, discount outs, dont know how many ways he beats you, fold unless hes out of line a lot, etc.
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Yeah. I think it's kind of complicated. Because of his TAG stats and my previous play with him, he is easily capable of 2nd level thinking at least. It's more likely that I have 2 overs than a PP (though my play thus far resembles both). He could be semi-bluffraising a flush draw that he had on the flop or picked up on the turn in hopes of moving me off my AK or whatever. He could have a legitimate hand or just have AJ, trying to get me to fold.
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